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Jonathan Givony
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Jeremy Woo
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Jeremy Woo
ESPN
- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in 2023
Covered the NBA and NBA draft for Sports Illustrated from 2015-2023
Duke freshman Cooper Flagg has held the top spot in ESPN’s Top 100 rankings since we first projected the 2025 NBA draft class more than a year ago.
Despite starting the season as the projected No. 1 pick, he has improved his standing this season, hitting his stride in ACC competition, particularly since turning 18 on Dec. 21. Duke (31-3, 19-1 ACC) and coach Jon Scheyer challenged him to be the focal point of a young team, playing against four top-25 ranked teams in the first month of the season.
In 20 ACC regular-season games, Flagg averaged 21.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists. The ACC’s player of the year and rookie of the year, who was also named an All-American, has showcased his ability as a passer, decision-maker and shooter. Flagg became the fourth Division I freshman, along with Kevin Durant (Texas), CJ McCollum (Lehigh) and Michael Beasley (Kansas State), over the past 25 seasons who had 20 PPG on 50% field goal percentage and 40% on 3-pointers in respective conference play, according to ESPN Research.
Flagg injured an ankle in the ACC tournament, causing him to miss Duke’s run to the conference title. He said Thursday he expects to be fully healthy for the NCAA tournament, where the Blue Devils earned a No. 1 seed and are a Final Four favorite. They’ll play Mount St. Mary’s on Friday at 2:50 p.m. ET (CBS).
The gap between Flagg and the rest of the 2025 draft class has widened significantly over the past three months, according to the 10 NBA general managers, executives and scouts with whom we’ve spoken. The conversation among execs is now about his rookie expectations and how he compares with previous No. 1 picks.
We talked to 10 NBA executives, granting anonymity in exchange for their candid opinions, to get a better feel for what makes Flagg such an attractive prospect, what skills he can still improve on and what to expect from him in the NCAA tournament. The execs discussed the chances of seeing him return to Duke as a sophomore after he was asked about the possibility following the Blue Devils’ regular-season finale win against North Carolina.
Whatever’s next for Flagg, he has met the expectations envisioned when he arrived in Durham, North Carolina, nine months ago.
“[Flagg’s] as NBA-ready as any of the [No. 1] guys in the past 10 drafts, if not more,” one Western Conference executive told ESPN.
What are Flagg’s strengths, and how does he compare to other No. 1 picks?
The NBA execs we talked to agree the way Flagg approaches the game — as a fierce competitor who seemingly has no off switch when it comes to intensity and competitiveness — is as unique as it is valuable for his future franchise.
“The best thing Cooper Flagg does is drive winning,” an Eastern Conference executive told ESPN. “It sounds cliché, but all the intel we’ve gathered, every interview we’ve done with current and past coaches, teammates, trainers, etc., all point to that same concept in different variations. It’s what fuels him every day.
“That’s such a rare and highly attractive quality to have in an 18-year-old, especially when you’re talking about the impact he can have on a team coming off a losing, often miserable season.”
Describing Flagg as an “ass kicker in every sense,” the same Eastern Conference executive added that “either you match his energy and unselfishness, or everyone will see right away that you’re not about winning.”
Flagg impressed with his growth on offense this season, but scouts laud his defensive impact as the calling card of his game. He projects to be able to defend multiple positions at a high level and is a significant playmaker, generating turnovers and protecting the rim thanks to his intensity and timing. Much of that is due to his approach and consistency of effort, according to scouts.
“He knows how to cut off angles and recovers extremely quickly when he gets beat. He has great instincts around the rim and moves his feet well on the perimeter,” one Western Conference scout told ESPN prior to the ACC tournament.
Early in the season, scouts we talked to were already willing to put Flagg among the best prospects in recent NBA drafts (albeit behind the San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama, who as the No. 1 pick in 2023 is still considered an all-time anomaly of a prospect).
“Some of [this conversation] is what do you like and what fits your team,” a second Western Conference scout told ESPN. “But once you get into the next tier [after Wembanyama], he’s there with any of those guys.”
Zion Williamson, in his one-and-done season at Duke in 2018-19, was the last No. 1 pick out of the college ranks to garner comparable hype. Williamson’s strength and explosiveness made him different stylistically from Flagg — and the buzz around him was distinct due to those rare traits — but Flagg’s production has put him in the same conversation as far as expectations go at the next level.
Flagg’s raw numbers don’t quite mirror Williamson’s historically prolific freshman season (the 2019 AP men’s player of the year averaged 22.6 points and 8.9 rebounds and ranked among the ACC’s leaders in steals with 2.1 and blocks with 1.8). But Flagg’s advanced stats place him squarely in the conversation alongside Williamson, as a whopping 41.1 net rating and 15.4 box plus-minus number help underscore Flagg’s impact, particularly his defensive contributions. It’s also notable that Flagg’s assist-to-turnover numbers far outpace Williamson and three other No. 1 picks during their one-and-done seasons (Paolo Banchero in 2022, Cade Cunningham in 2021 and Anthony Edwards in 2020), pointing to his unselfishness and growing comfort as a playmaker for teammates.
Production and projection are two different things, but it doesn’t hurt Flagg’s case that his dominance at the college level is backed up by the stats as well as the eye test, especially when scouts compare him to NBA stars.
“The best comp I’ve heard from our scouts is prime Kawhi Leonard,” a Western Conference general manager said, a reference to how Flagg reminds him of the LA Clippers veteran.
“Now, that’s not perfect because they are very different players at the same age, but it’s the one I like in terms of their style of play, two-way versatility, passing and the fact that they can both guard point guards, wings and big men.
“Kawhi’s defense was way ahead of his offense, and he has a lot of the same manufactured qualities [as Flagg] to his handle and shooting. … But I think about his unwavering confidence and relentless work ethic combined with his physicality, IQ and physical tools. That’s what helped him become an MVP candidate and the best player on a championship team,” the Western Conference GM said.
When Leonard was selected by the Indiana Pacers with the No. 15 overall pick in the 2011 draft and immediately traded to the San Antonio Spurs, he was viewed as a player with a future as a defensive stopper on the wing. While the NBA GM pointed out that the 6-foot-9 Flagg doesn’t have the same hands or 7-3 wingspan as the six-time All-Star, he shared where Flagg has the upper hand:
“He’s a better shooter, a better passer and a better overall player as a freshman.”
What are Flagg’s weaknesses?
A top concern among the 10 NBA executives we polled is that Flagg needs to improve in crunch-time situations.
“The question about Flagg has always been: How deep is his bag as a shot creator? Is he a guy who can go get you a bucket in the late clock? Can you run your offense through him and expect him to be a go-to guy in money time?” an exec for a Western Conference playoff-bound team told ESPN. “Early in the season, I would have said no. He was at his best in the mid-post. There was a lot of bully ball, jump stops and spin moves. He was primarily looking to get to his pull-up when his first move was cut off. It looked a little bit mechanical, a little predetermined.”
The same Eastern Conference GM who said Flagg doesn’t have many weaknesses recalled when Flagg turned the ball over in back-to-back possessions in the final 12 seconds at the end of Duke’s loss to Kentucky at the Champions Classic in November.
“There’s not many holes [in his game],” the GM said. “He’ll guard all over the floor, can pass, can put it on the floor, and he’ll have better players around him, more space in our league. The only thing to knock is he’s had chances to go win the game, and has slipped on the floor two or three times trying to make the play.”
While there’s concern over Flagg’s improvement in his handling, finishing and overall court awareness, there is also a consensus among the execs we spoke with that the star wing will continue to refine his skills.
“He’s still not a great ball handler or the most elusive guy, but he’s gotten a lot better with the ball,” said the Western Conference executive, who calls Flagg’s feel for the game elite. “The fact that he’s become such a good pull-up shooter helps a lot, too. So does this part of his game need to keep improving? Yes. But it’s definitely not a weakness anymore.”
How has Flagg improved Duke’s chances at winning a national title?
What Flagg has been able to do since Duke’s regular-season opening win against Maine is further increase evaluators’ confidence level that he’ll make the most of his abilities at the next level. Scouts pointed to how well he has handled the growing pressure while driving the team to a successful season, and noted his ability to make players around him better, including fellow freshman teammates Kon Knueppel (ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Top 100) and Khaman Maluach (No. 7).
“I thought [Duke] would be good, but not a top two or three team in the country,” said the same Eastern Conference GM. “The ACC was down, but I didn’t think he’d be able to elevate Duke and his teammates quite to this level at 17 years old. To do what he did, and … for Duke to be one of the title favorites. I didn’t see that happening.”
Rarely have players with Flagg’s level of hype been able to back up the expectations with both individual and team success. His comportment through such a high-profile season has solidified his standing along with his play.
“Sometimes when you’re a kid who’s been crowned for years, [the spotlight] can sneak up on you. The unrelenting unselfishness [he shows], given the productivity and platform and hype, it’s incredible,” one Eastern Conference scout said.
While Flagg doesn’t have much more to prove at the college level, evaluators we talked to are curious to see how prospects play under the magnifying glass of the NCAA tournament. Leading the Blue Devils on a deep tournament run would further validate their season, and it could also produce compelling matchups for Flagg before moving on to the pros.
“How does he cope the higher you get on the bracket, the more defenders and attention you draw?” the same Eastern Conference scout asked. “Curious to see how he handles all the different looks. If he plays a team like Houston or Florida with so much fight and size … [I want to see] how he’ll handle an elite defensive game plan.”
Real or not: Is there a chance Flagg returns to Duke?
While there’s no indication of Flagg’s injury scare last week factoring into any decision, there’s always a chance he could return for a sophomore season. In a preseason interview with ESPN, Flagg detailed his excitement to be playing for Duke.
So when Flagg said on March 3, weeks before the ACC tournament began, that he’s “living in the present right now,” it came as no surprise when he told The Athletic he wants “to come back next year.” In Duke’s final home game, home fans chanted “one more year!”
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Cooper Flagg gets ‘one more year’ chants after Duke’s home finale
Cooper Flagg gets a standing ovation and ‘one more year’ chants after exiting what could be his final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
One Western Conference executive told ESPN they don’t think Flagg’s family will put any pressure on him to make a decision either way.
“I would be surprised if he stayed, but maybe he’s not ready for the real world yet and just wants to be a kid? Let’s not forget he should be in high school right now,” said the executive, calling back to the fact Flagg reclassified and graduated from Montverde Academy (Florida) a year early in spring 2024.
There are examples of prospects who returned to school, though they were projected top-five picks and not slotted for the No. 1 spot. Marcus Smart (2014 No. 6 overall pick), Joakim Noah (2007 No. 9 overall pick) and Al Horford (2007 No. 3 overall pick) passed up opportunities to be top-five picks in the 2013 and 2006 drafts in order to return for another year.
Once Duke’s season ends, Flagg will have until the NBA draft’s early-entry deadline April 26 to decide his next move. Could a surprise tourney exit by Duke push him to further consider a return?
The millions Flagg has earned in NIL money, according to the NBA executives we spoke with, might cause a hint of contemplation that most would not have expected upon him enrolling at Duke, which also says quite a bit about how much the college basketball landscape has evolved.
However, ESPN’s Bobby Marks projects that Flagg returning to Duke could cost him, based on estimated cap numbers, $75 million to $125 million in potential salary on the backend of his NBA career since he would delay the start of his service clock for his second and third pro contracts. Players with 10 years of service are eligible for a supermax deal, a type of contract extension in which teams can give eligible players up to 35% of the total cap space allotted to that team for up to five years. That potential financial loss and the possibility of a career-ending injury make for a risky proposition for a second season in college.
“I can’t remember a No. 1 pick deciding to go back to school,” said an Eastern Conference scout.
